POKÉMON PACK EXPECTED VALUE
Rip Station publishes the expected value of every pack it sells. A pack pulls one real, professionally graded card, so a machine’s expected value (EV) is the average market value of the cards currently loaded in it. As of 2026-07-15, the Pokémon $150 Pack has an expected value of $160.63 against a $150.00 pack — an EV edge of +7.1%. Every machine is listed below. The figures are read live from the vault and regenerated at least every 10 minutes.
EV BY MACHINE
| Machine | Pack price | Expected value | EV edge (keep or ship) | Sell back (83%) | EV edge (sell back) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon $50 Pack | $50.00 | $53.47 | +6.9% | $44.38 | -11.2% |
| Pokémon $100 Pack | $100.00 | $106.93 | +6.9% | $88.76 | -11.2% |
| Pokémon $150 Pack | $150.00 | $160.63 | +7.1% | $133.32 | -11.1% |
| Pokémon $200 Pack | $200.00 | $213.61 | +6.8% | $177.30 | -11.4% |
| Pokémon $250 Pack | $250.00 | $267.35 | +6.9% | $221.90 | -11.2% |
Every rip is completely random and independent. EV is an average across many rips, not a guarantee on any single one. Not financial advice.
AUCTIONS — CARDS SELLING BELOW MARKET
Rip Station also runs a continuous auction: one real graded card at a time, each lot open for 24 hours, with $0.50 minimum bid increments and a 3% buyer premium on top of the winning bid.
Across the last 17 completed auctions, the median winning bid was 11.7% of the card's estimated market value, and 13 of 17 (76.5%) sold for under 15% of value. The cheapest cleared at 5.8% of value. That is a small sample from a new auction — many lots receive no bid at all — so it describes how the auction has cleared so far, not what any future lot will sell for.
OPEN FOR BIDDING RIGHT NOW
| Card | Est. market value | Top bid | Bid as % of value | Bids | Bidding ends (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Pokemon Sword & Shield Brilliant Stars #TG22 Full Art / Umbreon V | $305.00 | $10.50 | 3.4% | 4 |
Lots on this page were open at the timestamp above and close at the end times shown — a lot listed here has almost certainly settled by the time you read a cached copy of this page. See what is live now.
CHASE CARDS IN THE MACHINES
The five most valuable graded cards sitting in each machine right now, with their estimated market values. The lineup rotates as cards are pulled and the vault is restocked. A value is what the card is estimated to be worth on the open market, not a price it can be bought at — the only way to get one is to rip a pack.
Pokémon $50 Pack
- 2001 Pokemon Japanese Promo #003 Dark Venusaur-Holo Trainer MagazinePSA 8$477.00
- 2006 Pokemon Ex Crystal Guardians #4 Charizard-HoloPSA 5$441.00
- 2016 Pokemon Xy Evolutions #111 Surfing PikachuPSA 10$406.91
- 2026 Pokemon Asc En-Ascended Heroes #281 Team Rocket's Mewtwo Ex Special Illustration RarePSA 9$375.00
- 2018 Pokemon Japanese Sm Promo #252 Alolan Marowak Gx Pokemon Card GymPSA 10$280.00
Pokémon $100 Pack
- 2025 Pokemon Pfl En-Phantasmal Flames #125 Mega Charizard X Ex Special Illustration RarePSA 9$920.00
- 2002 Pokemon Legendary Collection #46 Haunter-Reverse FoilPSA 8$866.00
- 1998-99 Pokemon Japanese Pokemon Japanese Promo Ancient Mew I "Nintedo" ErrorPSA 9$825.00
- 2019 Pokemon Sun & Moon Cosmic Eclipse #259 Full Art / Reshiram & Zekrom Gx SecretPSA 10$755.00
- 2023 Pokemon Japanese Sv4a-Shiny Treasure Ex #347 Mew Ex Special Art RarePSA 9$500.00
Pokémon $150 Pack
- 2019 Pokemon Japanese Sm Promo #325 Tea Party Pikachu Pokemon Center KyotoPSA 10$1485.00
- 2001 Pokemon Japanese Promo #187 Hoppip Natta Wake Vol. 5PSA 9$1324.00
- 2004 Pokemon Ex Team Rocket Returns #65 Magikarp-Reverse FoilPSA 9$968.00
- 2019 Pokemon Sm Black Star Promo #SM190 Detective Pikachu-Holo Detective Pikachu Blu-Ray & DVD ReleasePSA 10$947.14
- 2009 Pokemon Platinum Supreme Victors #150 Zapdos-HoloPSA 8$690.00
Pokémon $200 Pack
- 2006 Pokemon Ex Crystal Guardians #4 Charizard-HoloPSA 9$1952.00
- 1999 Pokemon Japanese CD Promo #3 Venusaur-Holo CD PromoPSA 10$1650.00
- 2018 Pokemon Japanese Sm Promo #283 Yokohama's Pikachu Pokemon Center YokohamaPSA 10$1200.00
- 1999 Pokemon Game #13 Poliwrath-Holo 1st EditionPSA 8$974.71
- 2025 Pokemon Mep En-Me Black Star Promo #009 Alakazam Mega Evolution Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box-Mega GardevoirPSA 10$870.56
Pokémon $250 Pack
- 2020 Pokemon Swsh Black Star Promo #066 Charizard-Holo Prerelease-StaffPSA 10$2426.00
- 2007 Pokemon Ex Power Keepers #102 Vaporeon-Holo Gold StarPSA 7$2000.00
- 1999 Pokemon Japanese Vending #65 Alakazam-Holo Masaki PromoPSA 7$1426.00
- 2026 Pokemon Asc En-Ascended Heroes #284 Mega Gengar Ex Special Illustration RarePSA 9$1225.00
- 1996 Pokemon Japanese Basic #6 Charizard-HoloPSA 7$1000.00
DISCOUNTS LIVE RIGHT NOW
A code lowers what you pay while the expected value stays the same, so the edge rises. A 10% code on the Pokémon $150 Pack means you pay $135.00 against an expected value of $160.63 — an edge of +19.0% instead of +7.1%.
New users who arrive through a referral link get 10% off their first pack, applied automatically at checkout.
Sign up through another user's referral link. The code lands on your account shortly after you log in and applies automatically at checkout on your first rip.
Standing offer, no scheduled end date.
During the World Cup promotion, logged-in users get 5 penalty kicks on the $50 machine; the discount starts at 10% and climbs toward 30% until you beat the pack.
Log in and play the penalty-kick game on the $50 machine. The discount starts at 10% and climbs to 30% until you beat the pack.
Valid until 2026-07-19.
Only offers running today are listed here; this page drops a promotion within 10 minutes of it ending. Whatever applies to your account is shown at checkout.
HOW EV IS CALCULATED
One pack reveals one card. The expected value of a pack is therefore the average current market value of every card sitting in that machine, weighted by how likely each is to be pulled. Card values come from real recent sales across the trading card market, so they move with the market rather than with a price we set.
The EV edge is simply how that expected value compares to what the pack costs: (EV − pack price) ÷ pack price. A positive edge means the average card in the machine is worth more than the pack costs.
The same live vault composition produces the pull odds below, which is why the two always agree.
KEEP OR SHIP VS SELL BACK
These are two different EV paths and they do not carry the same edge, so both are published above.
Keep it or ship it. You end up holding a card worth its full market value, so you realise the EV edge in the table — on average, more than the pack cost you.
Sell it straight back. The machine buys any card back at 83% of its current market value, paid instantly to your wallet. That multiplies the expected value by 0.83, which pushes the edge negative — -11.1% on the Pokémon $150 Pack. The buyback stays open for 7 days after each rip and is always optional.
In short: the edge is real if you keep or ship what you pull, and flipping every card straight back to the machine costs you roughly the buyback spread.
PULL ODDS BY MACHINE
The market-value band of the card you pull, and how likely each band is. Computed from the live composition of each machine.
Pokémon $50 Pack
| $35–$45 | 51.8% |
|---|---|
| $45–$50 | 21.3% |
| $50–$100 | 21.2% |
| $100–$200 | 4.4% |
| $200–$500 | 1.3% |
Pokémon $100 Pack
| $70–$90 | 50.5% |
|---|---|
| $90–$100 | 22.2% |
| $100–$200 | 22.2% |
| $200–$400 | 4.0% |
| $400–$1000 | 1.1% |
Pokémon $150 Pack
| $105–$135 | 55.1% |
|---|---|
| $135–$150 | 19.8% |
| $150–$300 | 20.0% |
| $300–$600 | 4.0% |
| $600–$1500 | 1.0% |
Pokémon $200 Pack
| $140–$180 | 54.9% |
|---|---|
| $180–$200 | 20.0% |
| $200–$400 | 20.4% |
| $400–$800 | 3.7% |
| $800–$2000 | 1.0% |
Pokémon $250 Pack
| $175–$225 | 55.6% |
|---|---|
| $225–$250 | 19.9% |
| $250–$500 | 19.5% |
| $500–$1000 | 4.1% |
| $1000–$2500 | 1.0% |
EV QUESTIONS
- What is the expected value (EV) of a Rip Station pack?
- One pack pulls one real graded card, so a machine's expected value is the average market value of the cards currently loaded in it. As of 2026-07-15, the Pokémon $150 Pack has an expected value of $160.63 against a $150.00 pack — an EV edge of +7.1%. Every machine's live figure is published on this page.
- Is ripping packs on Rip Station profitable?
- It depends on what you do with the card, and Rip Station publishes both paths. If you keep or ship the card, the Pokémon $150 Pack carries an EV edge of +7.1% ($160.63 of expected card value for $150.00). If you immediately sell the card back, the machine pays 83% of its market value, so the same pack returns about $133.32 — an edge of -11.1%. The edge is real on the keep-or-ship path and negative if you flip every card straight back. EV is an average over many rips, never a guarantee on one.
- How does the 83% buyback affect expected value?
- The buyback pays 83% of the pulled card's current market value — not a percentage of the pack price. It multiplies the expected value by 0.83, which is what turns a positive keep-or-ship edge into a negative flip-it-back edge. The buyback stays open for 7 days after each rip, and taking it is always optional: you can keep the card in the vault or ship the physical slab instead.
- Do discount codes change the EV edge?
- Yes — a code lowers what you pay while the expected value stays the same, so the edge rises. A 10% code on the Pokémon $150 Pack means you pay $135.00 against an expected value of $160.63, an edge of +19.0% instead of +7.1%. Discounts are promotional and time-limited; the offers live right now are listed on this page, and whatever applies to your account is shown at checkout.
- What are the most valuable cards you can pull right now?
- The highest-value card in any Rip Station machine right now is 2020 Pokemon Swsh Black Star Promo #066 Charizard-Holo Prerelease-Staff (PSA 10), with an estimated market value of $2426.00, sitting in the Pokémon $250 Pack. The five most valuable cards in every machine are listed on this page with their grades and values. The lineup rotates as cards are pulled and the vault is restocked, and a card's value is what it is estimated to be worth on the open market — it is not a price the card can be bought at directly.
- Is the auction cheaper than ripping packs?
- Often, yes — they are different things. Ripping a pack is random: you pay a fixed price for an unknown card. The auction is not random: you can see exactly which card you are bidding on. Rip Station also runs a continuous auction: one real graded card at a time, each lot open for 24 hours, with $0.50 minimum bid increments and a 3% buyer premium on top of the winning bid. Across the last 17 completed auctions, the median winning bid was 11.7% of the card's estimated market value, and 13 of 17 (76.5%) sold for under 15% of value. The cheapest cleared at 5.8% of value. That is a small sample from a new auction — many lots receive no bid at all — so it describes how the auction has cleared so far, not what any future lot will sell for. Right now, 2022 Pokemon Sword & Shield Brilliant Stars #TG22 Full Art / Umbreon V has a top bid of $10.50 against an estimated market value of $305.00 — 3.4% of value — with bidding open until 2026-07-16T19:12:40.057Z.
- How often is the EV updated?
- Every figure on this page is read live from the cards currently in each machine and regenerated at least every 10 minutes. Card values move with real recent sales across the trading card market, and the EV moves as cards are pulled and the vault is restocked.
- Are the pull odds published?
- Yes. The odds for every machine are published on this page and on each pack page, broken down by the market-value band of the card you pull. They are computed from the live composition of the vault, so they change as the machine's contents change.
Figures on this page were generated on from the cards then in each machine, and are regenerated at least every 10 minutes. Rip Station is a virtual card vending machine: every card is real, professionally graded, and held in an insured vault. Every rip is random and independent. Not financial advice.